Masters 2026: Model Predictions & Expected Finishes
A simulation-based breakdown of expected finishing positions across the field.
The Éire Metrics Masters model simulates tournament outcomes to estimate how players are expected to perform.
Instead of predicting a single result, the model calculates an expected finish — the average finishing position across all simulated outcomes.
Lower values indicate stronger projected performance and greater consistency.
🏆 Top 10 Predictions
| # | Player | Expected Finish |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cameron Young | 24.77 |
| 2 | Scottie Scheffler | 25.85 |
| 3 | Matt Fitzpatrick | 25.97 |
| 4 | Jon Rahm | 27.42 |
| 5 | Akshay Bhatia | 28.22 |
| 6 | Xander Schauffele | 28.81 |
| 7 | Tommy Fleetwood | 29.31 |
| 8 | Bryson DeChambeau | 29.56 |
| 9 | Ludvig Aberg | 30.05 |
| 10 | Patrick Reed | 30.92 |
📊 Key Insights
- • No clear runaway favourite — the field is tightly packed
- • Cameron Young leads the model as the most consistent performer
- • Strong clustering from ranks 10–40 suggests high volatility
- • Several high-profile players rank lower due to inconsistency
🇮🇪 Irish Players
Shane Lowry – 34.15
Rory McIlroy – 37.80
Tom McKibbin – 41.28
Irish players project mid-pack overall, with no strong signal for a top-10 finish but clear upside depending on performance variance.
The model highlights how competitive the Masters field is, with small differences separating large groups of players.
As always in golf, variance plays a major role — but these projections provide a strong data-driven baseline heading into the tournament.